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Football intelligence, explored

Forecast Lab.

Every match has more than one story. Explore the chances. Test an outcome. See the points at stake.

Build any matchup
291 recorded forecasts6 leagues14 Oct — 11 Nov

MLS
Home

LAFC

Away

Austin FC

VS

Three ways this could go

90 minutes + stoppage time

These are chances, not certainties. Even the favourite can lose. Select an outcome to explore its points swing below.

The goal picture

Likeliest scorelines

Expected goals 1.63 : 0.72

1–0
14.9%
2–0
12.6%
1–1
11.8%
0–0
10.1%
2–1
9.1%
All other scorelines41.5%

Home goals first. No single scoreline captures the whole match.

The points at stake

What could this match mean?

LAFC2.02pts

Expected points from this match

Austin FC0.73pts

Expected points from this match

Expected points = 3 × win chance + draw chance. Select a result above to compare it with the forecast.

Explore the season race
Inside this forecast

Team strength ratings and recent form feed a three-outcome model. A goal model is then fitted to reproduce those outcome probabilities, so the scorelines and win chances tell the same story.

The goal figures are model estimates before the match, not shot-based xG measured during play. This forecast does not incorporate confirmed lineups, injuries or live events.

Trained through
2026-10-12
Model version
2026.08.1+4277ba19
Explore the evidence

Recorded forecasts, refreshed when a new model run is published. Dates follow the source schedule; kickoff times are available on matchday.